Une chance que le Québec fait parties du Canada

Une chance que le Canada a une meilleure situation financière que le Québec.

Si le Québec avait été souverain, on aurait subi une dévaluation de notre monnaie et la deuxième étape sinon pire on aurait subi une décote.

Deux facteurs combinés qui auraient été désastreux : Une dette avec de l’argent dévalué combinés avec des intérêts plus élevés.

Examiné ce qui se passe en Angleterre :

Extrait de: Pound falls again on deficit fears, Graeme Wearden, guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 9 March 2010 Pounds

• Sterling drops below $1.50 on warnings from ratings agency Fitch

• January's trade gap nears £8bn adding to pressure on pound

Sterling fell on the currency markets again this morning following fresh concerns over Britain's soaring deficit and its trade gap.

The pound fell by 1.3 cents, taking it back below the $1.50 level at $1.494 after ratings agency Fitch said Britain must take firmer action to tackle the budget deficit. Brian Coulton, Fitch's head of Europe, Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings, warned that the government's current plans fell far short of what was needed, and said Britain's credit profile has deteriorated in recent months.

Coulton told a conference in London that Fitch was "uncomfortable with the fiscal adjustment path set out by UK authorities", and wants to see "more credible and stronger fiscal consolidation plans during the course of 2010".

According to Coulton, the UK is still "within tolerance" of its prized AAA credit rating – the "gold standard" for sovereign debt which allows Britain to borrow relatively cheaply on the world's financial markets. But he also warned that the UK, along with France and Spain, had to act with the greatest urgency or risk being downgraded.

"The UK, Spain and France in particular must outline more credible fiscal consolidation programmes over the coming year given the pace of fiscal deterioration and the budgetary challenges they face in stabilising public debt. Failure to do so will intensify pressure on their sovereign ratings," he said.

Britain's deficit for the current financial year is expected to be around £178bn, or 12.6% of GDP. This is an all-time record, and the government is expected to borrow a similar amount next year to balance the books. Alistair Darling has pledged that the deficit will halve over the next four years, with annual borrowing falling to £82bn in 2014-15. By then, under the present government's plans, Britain's total national debt, after years of high deficits, will have risen to 78% of GDP, from 56% of GDP today.

Traders said the pound had also suffered from a report issued by ratings agency Moody's, which warned that it might cut the credit ratings on some UK banks as the government withdraws its support for the sector. This could potentially make it harder for them to borrow on the wholesale money markets, denting their profitability and thus the strength of the City.

Extrait de: Submitted by economist on Thu, 02/18/2010 - 07:00

ACCORDING to the Spaniards and other troubled countries, the "Anglo-Saxon media" are part of a plot to do down the euro-zone. See my colleague Charlemagne's post here. But never fear, Europe. The Anglo-Saxon media love nothing better than a bit of self-flagellation. Larry Elliott, the economics editor of the Guardian, our leading left-wing newspaper, has written a book on Britain's economy called Fantasy Island. Over at the right-wing Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who makes your humble blogger sound like Dr Pangloss, is already gearing up for the crisis. 

When we published a combined debt ranking two weeks ago, the UK was third on the list of countries at risk. It has the great benefit of having borrowed very long term; its average debt maturity is almost 14 years, so it is harder to engineer a funding crisis.  Nevertheless, it has a bigger debt-to-GDP ratio and annual deficit than when it was forced to go to the IMF in 1976 (although a much better inflation record than it did back then).

In a research note dated yesterday, Citigroup writes that the UK

is an economy that looks to be experiencing rising inflation, which may put pressure on the cost of financing. The ability to raise debt is also at risk. With quantitative easing ending, the UK Treasury is without an important marginal buyer of its debt. Also Michael Saunders, our UK economist, believes the probability of a hung parliament after the coming election is 40-50%. So there may not be the stable political base required to undertake unpopular policy decisions like cutting spending or raising taxes.

Even though the total debt/GDP ratio of Britain is well below Greece's, there are lots of off-balance sheet exposures (private finance, public sector pensions) that may make the real ratio a lot higher. And the key ingredient of a debt crisis is not the data, but a loss of confidence.

That blow to sentiment may have come from today's data on public sector borrowing. January is supposed to be a bumper month for tax revenues; it is when personal income taxes are paid by the self-employed and much corporate tax is paid.  The market forecast a £2.6 billion surplus; it got a £4.3 billion deficit, the first for January since monthly data started to be recorded in 1993. In cash terms, the shortfall was £8.2 billion. That indicates that the UK economy is still very weak.

The 10-year gilt yield has only risen seven basis points on the news but that still leaves Britain paying more to borrow than Italy, or those victims of international speculators, Spain.

In short, the Anglo-Saxons (at least on this side of the Atlantic) may be next in the firing line, as indeed they were in 1931, 1967, 1976 and 1992 to name a few crises. Of course, we will have our own objects for xenophobia when the worst happens. We used to blame the Swiss...

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    # by Bernard - 11 mars 2010 à 14 h 54

    Pour éviter la décote, ils vont nous étrangler a mort!

    Ils vont aussi profiter de ce que le gouvernement fédéral n'a pas augmenté les impôts et taxes pour occuper au plus vite ce champs de taxation.

    L'intention du fédéral était de nous aider... le provincial va en profiter pour nous taxer plus et miner l'économie du Québec encore plus. Devant les demandes des syndicats de la fonction publique, Charest va plier des jambes... pas grave, c'est pas lui qui paye.

    Pour ce qui est du PQ, c'est pareil. On ne pourra jamais s'en sortir!

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    # by Vincent - 12 mars 2010 à 18 h 11

    Mais avec la dette du Québec qui augmente de plus en plus, on risque quand même une décote(?).
    Le moment approche...