Roubini sees smaller eurozone

Puisque je suis d’accords avec sa position, aucun commentaire en particulier.


WASHINGTON — Weaker European economies like Ireland and Portugal will probably have to exit the euro monetary union one day, but not before they restructure their debts, U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini said on Tuesday.

"We started with private debt, we socialized it and it became public debt. Now we have sovereigns in trouble being bailed out by essentially super sovereigns, IMF, euro zone, EU," Mr. Roubini told Reuters Insider. "But there’s not going to be anybody coming from Mars or the moon to bail out the IMF or the eurozone."

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Mr. Roubini, an economics professor at New York University who rose to prominence as one of the few economists who warned of an impending credit crisis before 2007, said recent measures aimed at quelling troubles in Ireland amounted to little more than "kicking the can down the road."

Asked if the 16-nation eurozone would eventually disintegrate, with some of the more debt-ridden members dropping out, Mr. Roubini, head of RGE Global Economics, said:

"Eventually that’s likely, but before some of the weaker members exit the monetary union, the more likely scenario that’s going to affect the markets is a corrosive but orderly restructuring of their public debts."

He said that process would not be painless.

"The risk is that you start with one and it unravels," he warned.

Turning to the United States, Mr. Roubini said the latest push to ease monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is a "necessary evil."

He estimated, however, that the Fed’s new US$600-billion in bond purchases would add only 0.3 percentage point to next year’s growth rate, not enough to get the economy expanding at its full potential