The Québec story: Short term gain/long term pain?


Cahier spécial : Québec frappe son mur dans moins de 10 ans.



An examination of economic and social trends in Québec reveals a province that is doing reasonably well in the short run but
which faces serious longer term challenges.

Sadly, the longer-term picture is not so optimistic— a number of troubling issues could seriously impact the health of Québec’s economy, compromising the sustainability of its social programs and the economic wellbeing of its citizens.

a)      One such problem area is Québec’s dependence on transfer payments from the federal government to maintain its standard of living, as outlined earlier in the paper.

b)      And of even greater concern for Québec government officials is the possibility of an ever-growing public debt occurring at the very same time the working population begins to decline. A “demographic winter,” when it does arrive, will clearly impact Québec more than most other parts of the country since Québec’s population is ageing the fastest.

c)      All of this spells serious trouble for the sustainability of the Québec welfare state.

One of the most obvious is the possibility that economic growth may not be as robust as officials anticipate, in light of shaky financial markets, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, and anemic job numbers coming out of the U.S.

But most troubling of all is the question of whether the Québec government can actually make this work. After all, change is never easy. And that is doubly true when change involves belt-tightening, especially among a population that has grown accustomed to ever-greater government largesse.

Fewer and fewer workers (and taxpayers) will find themselves supporting an ever-growing population of older Québecers, increasingly dependent on the State for their well-being.

When that day dawns, the problems facing Québec over the NEXT FIVE YEARS

will seem like child’s play.


Table des matières

A Québec family portrait

Indice de fécondité et qualité de l’éducation

Positive trends

Québec’s fertility rate is increasing – INDICE DE FÉCONDITÉ

Québec’s education outcomes – QUALITÉ DE L’ÉDUCATION

Croissance par endettement

Québec weathered the recent recession better than other provinces:

Croissance par endettement

Les taux d’impôts et de taxes sont élevés

Worrisome trends

Tax rates are high:

Marriage rates are low:

Cohabitation rates are high relative to other provinces and countries:

A “demographic winter” is coming - Une démographie catastrophique

A “demographic winter” is coming:

Personne active du Québec

Québec Droite sans lunette rose

Solde migratoire

Les québécois prennent leurs retraites plus tôt,

Seuil critique, peut-être 2020 ?

Building Québec’s welfare state

Building Québec’s welfare state – the historical background

Economic and tax issues: Funding the system

The Québec tax system

Transfer payments is not sustainable over the long term

Transfer payments

Ce que les Anglais pensent du Québec

Péréquation

La contestation

1. Programmes trop généreux

2. Ne règle pas les problèmes économiques

3. La crise économique, elle est de plus en plus contestée

Québec’s growing public debt

Québec - Budget 2011 : Dette publique

Family policy overview

The initial phase: Pre-1997

1997 and beyond

Une politique familiale inefficace et coûteuse.

The addition of parental insurance in 2006 – Congés parentaux

Les congés parentaux un programme ruineux

Les coûts :

Les résultats :

Qui en profite ?

Les conséquences :

Examining the impact of Québec family policy Fertility – Politique familliale

Universal childcare program might wish to avoid

Daycare quality – Garderies - CPE

Historique des CPE

2006, Étude sur les Garderies Universels

Les CPE ont échoué sur le plan pédagogique... comportemental et démographique

Les motivations et conséquences économiques des garderies à 7 $

Working in Québec

La liberté économique de plus en plus restreinte

High school dropout rates

Relationships and family form

Divorce

The situation facing Québec society and families

The Québec story: Short term gain/long term pain?

Conclusion

La source du problème

Politiciens ayant un sens moral douteux

Acheter des votes

Le cancer de la démocratie : les groupes d’intérêts

L’historique Québécoise

L’immobilisme du Québec

A quand le mur?


  1. gravatar

    # by Incubus - 20 novembre 2011 à 12 h 56

    Vous êtes optimiste avec 10 ans, moi je pense que cela sera plus tôt pour la simple raison que la crise de dette qui frappe présentement l'europe va se produire ici.

    http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov11/debt-jobs11-11.html