Innovation key to Ontario’s prosperity in the 21st century

Le Centre Mowatt, a sortis un rapport sur un plan quinquennal pour l’Ontario.

Je l’ai consulté rapidement, voici certains éléments que j’ai retenus dans le rapport, suite à l’article de Len Crispino and Matthew Mendelsohn.


Extrait de: Innovation key to Ontario’s prosperity in the 21st century, Len Crispino and Matthew Mendelsohn, Thestar.com, Jan 25 2012

The 20th century was a good one for Ontario. Its prosperity was founded on a strong manufacturing base, its proximity to American markets, a rich natural environment and its position as the centre of Canadian economic and political power — power it was not afraid to wield in order to secure favourable federal policies.

That era is over. The global economic downturn has accelerated the need to define Ontario’s 21st century economic vision and prepare for its next great economic era.

We should not underestimate the challenges.

·         High levels of government debt among many of our most important trading partners,

·         A large provincial deficit and

·         High levels of North American household debt present challenges for Ontario businesses.

These challenges are not news to the federal or provincial governments, or to the people of this province, many of whom are worried about their jobs, businesses and communities.

Ontario is facing a major turning point in its history. The cyclical economic downturn is taking place against larger structural changes. We are transitioning away from many of the old industries that were the foundations of Ontario’s prosperity for generations.

Meanwhile, the global economy is undergoing a geopolitical reordering

·         The emergence of previously less-developed economies and a relative decline in the economic strength of the United States.

What steps are necessary to meet these challenges and enable Ontario to emerge stronger during this transition? The Ontario Chamber of Commerce and the Mowat Centre, supported by Leger Marketing and in consultation with business, government, labour and civic leaders, offer an economic vision for Ontario.

Emerging Stronger is an ambitious plan.

It identifies five priorities for Ontario:

1.      Improving innovation and productivity;

2.      Building a modern labour force that better leverages newcomers’ skills, experiences and networks, and facilitates the full labour market participation of aboriginal people;

3.      Returning to fiscal sustainability, which includes a modernized public sector and a supportive federal government;

4.      Becoming a highly diversified global exporter and investor, fully integrated into global supply chains;

5.      And developing a deeper understanding of Ontario’s competitive advantages and ensuring those sectors are supported.

The province is well-positioned to emerge stronger during this period of transition.

But two realities must be acknowledged and addressed:

1.      Our businesses are not as productive as they could be and

2.      Many businesses are not sufficiently exposed to rapidly growing emerging markets.

Although the high — and volatile — dollar creates challenges for many industries, it also creates opportunities to make investments that will increase productivity and deepen connections globally.

The federal and provincial governments must align their public policies and investments accordingly, which includes revising the federal policies that redistribute a good portion of Ontario’s wealth to other parts of the country.

Message: envoyé aux politiciens fédéraux, les règles de la péréquation devront changer, une province qui ne veut pas sortir de son merdier (genre le Québec, avec plus de 30 ans de péréquation est toujours peu compétitif et incapable d’équilibrer son budget), la pression politique pour réduire le fardeau fiscal imposé aux Canadiens extérieurs au Québec s’opposent à l'idée d'avoir à financer l'interventionnisme québécois, ce qui tout à fait normal, quand l’argent est plus rare.

Collectively, we must prepare for intensifying global competition and falling barriers to trade and investment. Openness to the world — and the capacity of Ontarians to navigate in a diverse world — is a key asset. Embracing this quality will be crucial to Ontario’s success.

Loin, d’être convaincu que vous allez réussir, si les États-Unis étant le pays le plus productif et le plus entreprenant au monde ne sont même pas capables de réussir avec plus de 500 milliards de déficit commercial, pas sûr que l’Ontario va s’en sortir.

Je pense qu’il est grand temps d’arrêter de se leurrer, et d’équilibrer l’économie avec une plus saine concurrence, incluant les coûts sociaux des pays émergents.

Malheureusement, ce genre de commentaire ne sortira pas dans ce rapport, car les amis de Bay Street n’apprécieront pas.

Ontario has many of the goods and services the world wants. But that should not encourage complacency. The next five years are key: we must embrace the changes that are before us, prepare for even greater competition from our international peers, realize the full potential of the Great Lakes and the Ring of Fire, deepen collaboration globally and harness the power of diaspora networks, and identify and invest in Ontario’s competitive advantages.

Ontarians have always worked hard, but much of our 20th century prosperity was the result of good fortune: proximity to the U.S. market, abundant fresh water and attractiveness to immigrants. We will require a different mindset for 21st century prosperity.

We will have to think much more carefully about our assets and opportunities so that we can emerge from this economic downturn stronger, more globally connected and more competitive.

Len Crispino is president and CEO of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce. Matthew Mendelsohn is director of the Mowat Centre for Policy Innovation


Des extraits du rapport :

Transformative Agenda for OntarioCulture of Innovation, the Challenges

·         Investment in Ontario’s physical capital stock is weak.  Ontario businesses continue to trail their US  counterparts in investing in machinery, equipment, and  software to make their workers more productive.

·         In 2009, the Ontario-US gap in information and  communications technology (ICT) investment per  worker was $1,350 (32 per cent), while in other machinery  and equipment the gap was $600 (12 per cent).

·         Canadian businesses under-invest in R&D, spending only  one per cent of GDP on R&D, compared to an OECD  average of 1.7 per cent and two per cent in the US.

·         Government needs to help bridge the  commercialization gap: Ontario’s universities are  producing world leading research. But the province is  struggling with turning this research into marketable  products and business solutions. The commercialization  gap needs filling with government supports that link business to academia—and vice versa.

Workforce

·         Canada’s labour productivity rate is growing at 0.5 per cent annually compared to 2.1 per cent in the US.

·         Reform Employment Insurance, life-long skills improvement, EI rules prohibit individuals from accessing retraining unless they are already unemployed.

Restoring Fiscal balance

The Challenges

·         Ontario has a $16 billion deficit, some of which is structural. Ontario’s proposal to balance the budget by 2017-18 is three years longer than most provinces’.

·         Healthcare costs comprise over 40 per cent of the provincial budget and are projected to increase.

·         Ontarians are disadvantaged by numerous federal spending programs, including equalization and funding for training.

·         Provincial debt is projected to reach $285 billion over the next two years—approximately $1,800 per capita

Find healthcare efficiencies: Recover the cost savings from investments in new technology and delivery. The days of “one-stop-shop” hospitals are disappearing. Cataract surgery, joint replacements, and diagnostic imaging are just a few examples of healthcare services that have been made more efficient through technological advancement. Yet, the fee schedule for these procedures remains unchanged, leading the province to overpay for care that actually costs less.

Je vais vous donner un exemple personnel du principe «coupe, mais pas dans ma cour»

Cet été, j'ai assisté à des fiançailles, durant le repas, j'avais à côté de moi une radiologiste, vous savez qu'ils font tous en moyenne 300,000 à 500,000 $ par année, et durant la semaine, j'avais publié un carnet, Overcharged for Health care, où l'on discutait grâce à la technologie, les radiologistes pouvaient prononcer un diagnostic quatre fois plus rapidement, et pourquoi le coût de l'acte n'avait pas été réduit de 4 fois par l'État.

Elle a littéralement été offusquée par ma question, pourquoi le coût de l’acte n’a pas été réduit?

Savez quelle réponse qu’elle ma sortis, «Vous savez, moi j’étudie chaque semaine».

Je n'ai point répliqué sur un débat économique durant des fiançailles, mais c'est drôle mes employés étudiaient à chaque semaine, mais ne recevait pas un salaire 6 fois supérieur.

Typique du comportement humain, elle fait plus de 5 à 7 fois, le salaire moyen d’un couple québécois, et la seule réponse à dire, j’étudie chaque semaine.

Alors, quand le système de santé est totalement figé, ne croyez pas, c'est seulement les syndicats, c'est tout le corporatisme qui profite du statu quo, et ne veule pas que ça change.

·         Improve results in the broader public sector: Revisiting these funding formulae to ensure results are being achieved in an efficient way is necessary.

·         Secure a better deal with the federal government: Ontario should continue its pursuit of principled federal transfers and the federal government should correct those policies that weaken Ontario’s fiscal capacity.

Global Economy

·         Seventy-eight per cent of Ontario’s exports are destined for the US. America’s economy faces slow growth prospects but remains Ontario’s primary export market.

·         Survey respondents identified China (57 per cent), India (38 per cent), and Brazil (31 per cent) as some of the most important markets for the future of Ontario, but less than two per cent of Ontario’s exports are currently destined for these countries.

Il va être très difficile d’exporter des produits manufacturiers au pays émergent, pour les raisons que j’ai expliquées tantôt, si les États-Unis ont peine et misère à réussir, imaginer l’Ontario avec une faible productivité, pour le Québec ce n’est même pas un débat.

idEntiFying, championing, & stratEgically invEsting in our compEtitivE

·         Respondents expect the manufacturing (69 per cent) and automotive sectors (50 per cent) to decline.

Imaginez, c’est la base industrielle de l’Ontario qui décline, ils ne sont pas sortis du bois, et bien sûr, dans tous ces rapports, on a toujours cet argument magique :

Ontario’s economy is undergoing rapid  evolution. Old industries are dying  while new ones are born. New growth  sectors for the Ontario economy will  be those where we have comparative  advantages in the provision of goods  and services to markets around the  world. Our business models and public  policies must adapt accordingly.

Vous savez, le service et le développement se délocalisent très bien actuellement, les ingénieurs chinois sont aussi brillants et leurs universités rivalisent avec les nôtres, pour les Indiens, il n’y a pas de problème, ils maîtrisent très bien l’informatique, le seul problème, leurs honoraires coûtent 10 fois moins cher.

Demandez à CGI, quel est le % d’accroissement de son personnel en Inde, et dîtes-vous, le client se fou totalement si le produit est développé en Inde, aussi longtemps que ça coûte moins chers, à moins que vous faîtes comme l’Ohio, d’instaurer une loi anti délocalisation pour les besoins de l’État.

Typique d’un rapport, qui veut rester ‘politicaly correct’ sans attaquer les problèmes à la source, sur l’avenir de l’industrie dans une mondialisation débridée.

C’est pour cela que Nouriel Roubini disait, on ne veut pas sérieusement attaquer les problèmes de fonds, les balances commerciales fortement négatives indiquent qu’il y a un virus dans notre économie mondiale, peut importe si tu es bon ou tu travailles comme un imbécile, tu n’es pas sûr tu vas réussir, si les dés sont pipés.