U.S. : Adding 146,000 jobs while 542,000 drop out + low wage

J’ai combiné deux articles en un seul, pour vous donner une idée de la situation économique désastreuse de nos voisins du Sud.

La plupart de ces informations proviennent généralement de blogues spécialisés.

Évidemment pour Wall Street pour 2013, tout vas fonctionner sur des roulettes, ils vont avoir des milliards additionnels (QE) pour mieux spéculer.

Il est fondamental en tant que Canadien de connaître l’état de santé de nos voisins américains, car ils sont notre principal client, mais aussi notre principal compétiteur.

S’il y a une trop grande différence de richesse entre les Américains et les Canadiens et comme ceux-ci se dirigent vers un pays de misère, il y a de grandes chances qu’on va devenir un pays de misère.

Car, s’ils sont près à travailler à 12 $ de l’heure avec des CV qualifiés, on va être obligés de suivre la tendance, sans cela on ne saura plus compétitif.

Bien sûr,  nos médias traditionnels et nos politiciens l’ont juste oublié de le vous mentionnez.


Unemployment rate

Disappearing US labor force and goodbye to retirement

Adding 146,000 jobs while 542,000 drop out of the labor force.

Understanding the changes in the unemployment rate.

The recent drop in the unemployment rate was largely due to the number of people dropping out of the labor force.  I’ve noticed that more people in the press are picking up on the important nuances when it comes to the employment figures.  For example, in the last month those “not in the labor force” increased by well over 500,000. 

Dropping out of the labor force

One of the more stunning realities is how many people are falling out of the labor force:

Here are some key stats:

Dropping out of the labor force

·         -In last year civilian noninstitutional population went up by 3.7 million

·         -In this time span, the labor force only went up by 1.3 million

·         -Those not in the labor force increased by 2.3 million

So this big jump is being pushed by more than baby boomer demographics.  Many are simply not retiring and you will see this in the economy where you will find much older Americans working jobs that were usually standard for younger Americans.  You have this compression occurring where many older Americans simply cannot afford to retire while younger Americans are fighting as hard as they can to simply land a job in the tight economy.

The market added 146,000 jobs in the establishment survey which is positive but we need at least 125,000 a month just to keep up with population growth.

Back to 2006

We’ve been adding jobs since 2010 and now we are back to employment levels last seen in 2006:

U.S. Employment nonfarm

At the same time, our population has increased and we are having larger portions of Americans not in the labor force. 

This is key in understanding the continuing drop in the unemployment rate that you hear about in the media.  There are a couple of surveys to pay attention to and people are now starting to become more aware of the differences.

A big rise during these months has to do with retail hiring for the holiday season:

What is concerning above is the drop in construction and manufacturing.  These are blue collar positions and given the importance of housing to the economy, these signal something else.  Sure, the Fed has pushed rates lower yet this has largely created a refinancing boom yet construction for new housing is still weak.

It will be important to keep our eyes on these numbers moving forward since the seasonal changes are big during the holiday season.  Also, next year we will see changes because of the fiscal impacts that will happen.  Those that think that high levels of debt relative to GDP don’t matter need only look at Europe.  Again, it is important to understand the differences in the employment figures.

Extrait de l’article: Disappearing US labor force and goodbye to retirement – Adding 146,000 jobs while 542,000 drop out of the labor force. Understanding the changes in the unemployment rate, my budget 360.


LOW WAGE

Extrait de: Low Wage Sectors Drive Employment Growth, Author: Barry Ritholtz, EcoMonitor, December 8th, 2012

U.S. Low wage employment grows

This morning, I mentioned how little I care about the discrete monthly NFP data each month, saying the “overall trend” was what mattered. Specifically, I suggested looking at internals of the report for trends in wages, temp help, hours worked, etc. to determine the overall health of the labor market.

This report showed a continuation of a trend I find to be unhealthy: The outside contribution of low wage sectors to the NFP report.

Leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, retail and temporary jobs — all low wage sectors — have been responsible for over half (51%) of the private sector job growth the last year.

Weak wage growth is function of slack in the labor force and a lack of negotiating power amongst job holders and seekers.

This piece is cross-posted from The Big Picture with permission.