Précarité financière de l’ensemble du Canada

Encore un autre bon article du Macleans.ca, sur la précarité financière de l’ensemble du Canada.

Évidemment, les conservateurs veulent faire bonne impression en tentant d’équilibrer le budget dans deux ans pour fin électoraliste.

Mais à quoi ça sert, si l’ensemble des provinces sont dans le rouge, car chers politiciens vous n’avez pas encore compris, qu’il y a un seul contribuable, alors à quoi ça sert d’équilibrer le budget au fédéral, si votre unique contribuable est assommé d’impôts et de tarifs provenant de sa province.

Peut-être pour vous, M. les politiciens vous voyez cela comme un vase clos pour satisfaire votre propagande politique, mais pour un contribuable, il n’y a qu’une seule source de revenus qu’on peut confisquer.

Quand les provinces et le fédéral vont être équilibrés, là, on va sérieusement parler d’équilibre.

Comme je l’avais déjà mentionné, le fédéral camoufle ces déficits structurels sur le dos de ces provinces, juste les coûts projetés pour la santé va les mettre en faillites, alors quand va-t-on parler de vraies choses ? Au lieu de faire juste du bruit.

healthcare as a share of Canada’s

 

Don Drummond and Derek Burleton forecast that spending growth will continue at 6.5 per cent per year from 2010 to 2030, a rate 2.5 per cent above projected nominal GDP growth (Drummond and Burleton 2010, 14-15). Left unchecked, this growth would have serious negative consequences, including crowding out other government services, increased taxation of working-age people, increased spending by individuals for services currently funded by the provinces, and a decline in the quality of care. (1)

Politiciens, ça ne vous tente pas de travailler ensemble (fédéral-provincial) et faire face aux vrais problèmes, même, si ça risque d’offusquer certains groupes d’intérêts ou votre ego.

Typique d’un État providence, l’art de pelleter les problèmes à plus tard, une vraie autruche risquant de s’étouffer avec trop de dette.

Vous comprenez le sens : Démocratie défectueuse = économie défectueuse


Extrait de: Provinces spiral towards debt crisis as Ottawa boasts of sound finances, by Erica Alini on Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty likes to draw up comparisons with other advanced economies. Even when announcing in November that the federal deficit would come in at $26 billion, $5 billion higher than predicted in the 2012 budget, the minister couldn’t resist gloating: “Unlike many of Canada’s counterparts in the G7, we remain on track to return to balanced budgets over the medium term.”

But with provincial deficits swelling from coast to coast this year, and rising health care costs expected to ravage provincial coffers in the coming decades, federal figures are starting to paint an increasingly misleading portrait of Canada’s government debt situation.

Province dette

 

La seule province qui est positive est la Saskatchewan, mais attention avec seulement
56 millions, tout le reste est dans le rouge, beau
ÉQUILIBRE !

Note : Le tableau est interactif, si ça vous tente d’y jeter un coup d’œil.
Provincial deficits and debt

Lower-than-expected revenues have dug a $4-billion hole in Alberta’s finances and inflated Newfoundland’s deficit to over $700 million (almost triple what was initially projected), adding resource-rich provinces, along with long-time offenders such as Ontario and Quebec, to the list of fiscally challenged jurisdictions.

The long-term forecast looks scarier still. Even assuming, as the Parliamentary Budget Office does, that Ottawa’s debt will steadily shrink and disappear around 2040, provincial, territorial and local governments are on track to swell Canada’s total public debt to the equivalent of 100 per cent of GDP by 2070.

You wouldn’t know by looking at government statistics. Ottawa doesn’t publish any of its long-term analyses that show how federal and provincial fiscal trends add up, a practice common among several industrialized countries and recommended by the Organization for Economic Development and Co-operation and the International Monetary Fund.

When Auditor General Michael Ferguson prodded Finance Canada last fall to make such comprehensive forecasts available to the public, the department politely declined, noting that

“the federal government is not accountable
for the fiscal situation of the provinces and territories.”

It’s easy to sympathize with that view.

After all, provincial governments absorbed very little of the deficit-slashing lesson of Liberal prime minister Jean Chrétien. While Ottawa’s share of public sector debt shrunk from 62 per cent in 1991 to 33 per cent in 2011, the provinces and territories’ grew from 34 to 47 per cent, according to Statistics Canada. (The balance is made up of debt owed by local governments and the Canada and Quebec pension plans.)

Yet one might feel more lenient toward Canada’s provinces after considering that they shoulder the brunt of what is expected to become one of the heaviest burdens on government balance sheets across the industrialized world: health care costs. It’s the ever-higher medical bills of a rapidly aging population that are setting provinces on a path to fiscal ruin, according to the Parliamentary Budget Office.

Conversely, one of the reasons why the federal government’s fiscal trajectory looks so promising is that Ottawa cleverly insulated itself” from such a long-term threat by capping health transfers to the provinces, according to economist Don Drummond.

Exactement, ce que je vous dis depuis des années, il se pète les bretelles devant le G20, mais en arrière on se dirige vers une catastrophe, car il n’y a qu’un seul et unique contribuable, vous M. le peuple. !

In December 2011, Ottawa moved away from six per cent annual increases in such transfers, pegging them instead to growth in non-inflation adjusted GDP beyond 2016. Those cost risks, though, might boomerang should a province’s debt become unsustainable and require a federal bailout, Drummond and others have warned.

That would be every taxpayer’s problem, and that’s why Canadians deserve to have a full picture of government debt—wherever it might be hidden.